Monday, 10 November 2014

We have met the enemy and he is us - Pogo

I wanted to write this post about how an average investor, who is not prepared to put in the time and effort to learn about stock picking, should invest. I came across some well written blog pieces and articles on the same subject who have put it more succinctly what I have wanted to say. 

The average retail guy should just do an Index or a large cap MF SIP, have some bonds in his portfolio and one term insurance. What he needs is simple advice but the most important thing is sticking with this plan for 20-30 years especially in a vicious bear market when all theory and good advice is ignored and thrown out of the window because the investor panics. Therefore what he should do is to at least learn the basics of how stock markets work, history of financial markets, and above all hire a advisor whom he will trust. Rest is not too complicated. But in today’s world of instant gratification who thinks of 20-30 years down the line. However, the same person will be willing to buy and hold a plot of land or flat for far longer than he will hold a stock. 

Am putting a small relevant except from Safal Niveshak's latest blog and the link to that blog along with links to some other articles.


“Vishal : What according to you is the biggest problem why most investors don’t succeed in the stock market?

Subra: I think patience. Go back to what Pascal said, people can’t sit tight. But look at it this way, you don’t need to do anything else than put money in an index fund. Today you have an index fund at 0.15%. Believe me, it matches with the best cost in the world. You can always argue that Vanguard is at 0.02%, but then those volumes have not built up. So all you do as a kid when you are 23-25 years old, and you can start with say Rs 2,000 per month, just do an SIP in an index fund. You will make money in the long run, as the economy grows and the market rises. Even when the market goes down you will make money as you will get more units. And look at it over a 10-15 years period. Unfortunately, people cannot do this. I think they watch too much of TV.

Just don’t do anything and keep investing in an index fund, and pick up one stock every year after doing some research and studying say 20-30 companies. It’s not very difficult to do that.

All you need is one term insurance, one savings bank account, one index fund, and that’s it. Then, anybody comes and tells you buy this and buy that, you just need to say no. And I see portfolios of people who’ve put money in 100+ mutual fund schemes without understanding what they are doing. You don’t need to do all this! This is bound to give you sub-optimal returns. Either you be in an index fund or you pick stocks. If you can’t pick stocks, be in an index fund. That’s fine. Concentrate on your career.

What is your biggest asset? Today when you are 25, your biggest asset is the present value of your future earnings. So that could be say Rs 15 crore for a 25 year old guy. So that’s your human capital. That is your biggest asset. The most important thing is to protect it. How will you protect it? You take term insurance, and you take care of your health. Because if you fall ill, you will eat into that if you are unable to earn for 1-2 years. That is your most important asset – your human capital.

Now, if that asset is in a government job, you’re sure it is like a bond fund. Nothing will happen to it. You’ll get an indexed pension. So, then your portfolio can be in equities. But if your human capital is in running a website or courses, things like you and me do, then that is behaving like equities as your earnings might fluctuate. Then your portfolio has to include some bonds.”

Excerpt ends here

So if your main income is like equity, you have to have bonds in your portfolio. And if your main income is like a bond, then your portfolio has to be equity.

There are some good "robo advisors" in the US like marketriders, betterment, wealthfront and liftoff. Even fidelity and charles schwab are now getting in to this space. The basic service of these advisors enables you to pick a portfolio of low cost ETFs or MFs as per your preferences and risk appetite. They then monitor your portfolio and alert you if you need to re-balance your portfolio at any point. This kind or service is slowly making its way into India now and I think will be a large space in the next 5 years.  

So to a young person starting off with their first job in their early 20s, I would say that you have the most powerful weapon in your hands to beat inflation and that is Time. Use the first 3-4 years to build discipline of investing a fixed amount on a monthly basis. In your late 20s or early 30s you will probably get married and have more responsibilities. And it is at this time that the benefit of having cultivated the habit of investing systematically which will come to your aid.

Don’t let your own beliefs, actions and behavior be your own enemy. Also watch less of financial tv channels and read some good financial magazines like moneylife. They are one of the best magazines in this space and provide good and clear analysis.

You can go through these links to read more.


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